Who between the two Nograles candidates for Davao City Mayor and Congresswoman, respectively, has better chances of winning in the coming May 12, 2025 midterm polls? Yes, running for mayor of the city is former Civil Service Commission (CSC) chairman Karlo Nograles, While incumbent PBA Partylist representative lady lawyer Migz Nograles is running for congresswoman in the city’s first district.
Considering the largely boosted popularity of former President Rodrigo R. Duterte because of his party’s effective portrayal of the former leader as “victim” of political persecution with his alleged crime against humanity, our take on the matter is all the more FPRRD has gained sympathy from the city’s population.
Therefore, despite his absence in Davao City due to his detention at the prison of the ICC in The Hague, Netherlands, the almost non-stop news coverage of his situation in that European country has made his personal campaign in the city unnecessary.
And given Karlo’s seemingly “elitist” campaign scheme, all the more that Duterte’s name becomes household word.
Therefore, voters coming from the households carry in their consciousness the Duterte name when they go to the polling precincts. And it becomes automatic that what is in the voter’s mind is what the voter’s hand writes.
Meanwhile, we have observed lately, that Karlo appears a bit serious in his candidacy. Thus, our near agreement to grapevine talks that he is a hesitant candidate for Davao City Mayor is ebbing out. Earlier there were talks of Karlo’s being goaded into running for mayor because shortly before the deadline of the filing of certificate of candidacy it was then incumbent Mayor Baste who was the likely re-electionist candidate for mayor of the city..
But when Baste gave way to his father, it became evident that FPRRD would have run un-opposed – a scenario in Davao City’s local politics that would have serious negative implication on the national administration.
Hence, it was imperative then, that a national administration-backed candidate for city mayor be put up. The only best option therefore was Karlo Nograles, the traditional political nemesis of the Dutertes in the city.
Whether or not Karlo’s getting convinced to oppose the former President come backing as a mayoral candidate has certain consideration of whatever kind, we have no desire of knowing.
And as we earlier expounded here in this piece that we have observed Karlo’s campaign getting serious, still his ways appear not to bode well with the common man – people in the city’s rural barangays, especially those in the hinterlands.
Like for example in a recent sojourn to one rural village where we happen to visit a relative, we saw his campaigners on board an air-conditioned van that was littered on the front and back, as well as on its both sides with his campaign posters. We have no idea whether candidate Karlo was on board since the van’s windows were all closed. The vehicle was also running fast as if some other candidate-opponents of Karlo were running after it.
It was as if the driver of the van would not want the rural electorate to read his name, his resume’. Seemingly, his campaigners would not want their candidate exposed to the people whose votes he is seeking to have.
In such a situation it appears that Karlo prefers not to be identified with the common man – the masses that hope to see in him a different breed of young leader.
And think about this: Candidate Karlo as a mayoral contender, has to get out of the realm of the first district, the acknowledged turf of the Nograleses painstakingly cultivated by his late father then congressman and later Speaker of the House. Karlo has to “invade” the second and third districts, areas undoubtedly still “alien” to him.
In other words, Karlo’s fate in the second and third districts is heavily uncertain for his run.
How about Attorney Migz’s chances of defeating incumbent Polong Duterte? Well, for many her chances of grabbing back the Nograles’ political dominance in the first district depends on how she will “re-live” the campaign style of her late father.
Fortunately for us we were able to witness how the late Boy Nogie (as we fondly called him during his time) dealt with fellow professionals – lawyers, doctors, teachers, the city’s social elite, businessmen and the ordinary man on the streets.
In all likelihood, there are some of the sectors we have mentioned earlier that first district congressional candidate Migz may not be comfortable dealing with. She may not also be fully aware of the weaknesses of her nemesis Cong. Polong.
But on the whole it is our personal belief that the first district is easier for Migz Nograles to “navigate” than the entire Davao City for Karlo to try his luck for the mayorship.
But again, miracles can happen and we assume that the two Nograles scion are believers of that.
-30-
