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ROUGH CUTS | The VP’s impeach trial: evolving scenario

Several columns back we wrote about former President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s having made a supreme sacrifice by allowing his easy arrest by elements of the Philippine National Police and the International Police Organization (Interpol) in the easiest possible manner.

Yes, it was our take on FPRRD’s virtual handing himself over to his arresting officers without much resort to legalese. Except for some few scenes with some drama elements, Duterte at that time calmly went with his captors to Villamor Airbase and later boarded the plane that brought him to The Hague in the Netherlands.

Today, Duterte is a little over a month in incarceration. Yet, his arrest remains the talk of everybody wherever there are gatherings. And this can only be interpreted as a massive show of support to the former President by a cross section of Philippine society.

This support however, is not only on Duterte’s person but very clearly it rubs in on the candidates under his PDP-Laban party, especially for those running for senators and for the prospective candidate for President in the 2028 Presidential elections, Vice President Sara Duterte. In effect the former President’s supreme sacrifice is fast getting rewarded.

And why are we saying that Duterte’s sacrificial act is now paying off? Look at the results of surveys conducted lately. Where during the height of the House Quad Committee’s investigation on the manner VP Sara spent the confidential funds of her two offices her performance and trust ratings made a nose dive. These days when she tactfully handled the controversy generated by her father’s arrest her performance and trust ratings made a big leap while those of the President and the Speaker of the house fell to an abyss low.

As to the Duterte senatorial bets, suddenly in the latest surveys of both the Social Weather Station and Pulse Asia they grabbed at least half of those in the list of potential winners. Should this trend continue until after the final vote is counted, what scenario is likely to occur as far as the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara is concerned? What else but a possible Sara acquittal!

This brings back to mind our thought of the reason why there was really no forceful efforts to have the impeachment trial conducted under the current Senate despite supposed demands from a few House members, That is, that those wanting to have the VP convicted in her impeachment are not certain they can get the number to oust the Vice President. So they dillydallied the trial citing mostly procedural and administrative grounds.

Then came the Duterte supreme sacrifice cum arrest and kidnapping to The Hague. The people’s – mostly Duterte hardliners’ – – reactions border to pandemonium. Rallies were organized here, there and everywhere in the world, according to reports both from the mainstream and social media.

As an offshoot, a new scenario is presented in the results of surveys conducted by both the more and lesser known survey outfits. A number of pro-Duterte senatorial bets were catching up on the erstwhile dominant administration Senate candidates.

Thus, with the possibility of the pro-Duterte senators outnumbering those identified with the national administration, all the more that those strongly wanting VP Sara to be convicted in her impeach case will likely fail in their objective.

In other words with the former President sacrificing his freedom in the distant The Hague prison, he not only gets the assurance that his PDP will remain strongly afloat in the forthcoming midterm polls but also  the certainty of his daughter VP Sara’s non-conviction – assuming that her impeach trial will be pursued.

Meanwhile, the former Chief Executive – depending on how he plays his role and how his own trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) will proceed, can already be assured of a “hero” status in the hearts and minds of many back home. Even a conviction by the ICC will likely not diminish the support of his avid followers

History, while it may not be able to ignore his ICC experience and the outcome of the trial of his case of having committed a crime against humanity, could end up relatively kind to him.

What more if his supreme sacrifice will perpetuate his party and the people under its wings in the succeeding governance of the country?

But again power has its way of changing the attitude of those who have it. And Duterte’s trusted men or women, are no exception to getting corrupted by power.

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