MANILA – A recent Senate Preference Baseline Survey conducted by PUBLICUS Asia Inc. reveals the competitive landscape for the upcoming 2025 senatorial elections, showing that while certain candidates have gained early support, a significant portion of voters remain undecided and open to change.
Unaided test was part of the survey where respondents were asked to name their top-of-mind senatorial candidate. Senator Risa Hontiveros emerged as the most prominent name due to her leadership in the Senate investigation into illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations.
However, among officially declared candidates, reelectionist Senator Bong Go currently leads with 5% of the votes. He is followed by a four-way tie between cardiologist and health advocate Doc Willie Ong, former Senator Manny Pacquiao, former Senate President Tito Sotto, and SAGIP Partylist Representative Rodante Marcoleta, all at 4%.
Regionally, Bong Go is the top pick in Mindanao with 12%, while Pacquiao follows at 8%. In North Central Luzon (NCL), Doc Willie Ong holds a 7% lead. In the National Capital Region (NCR), former Senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan are top of mind with 7% and 6%, respectively.
Strong support with the potential for change
The survey highlights that 5 to 7 out of 10 voters who named candidates such as Bong Go, Doc Willie Ong, Tito Sotto, Rodante Marcoleta, Kiko Pangilinan, Ping Lacson, Bam Aquino, and Bato Dela Rosa are unlikely to change their votes. However, candidates like Manny Pacquiao, Imee Marcos, Bong Revilla, and Erwin Tulfo have a larger number of supporters who are still undecided and could potentially shift their choices as the election approaches.
Aided survey results: newcomers making an impact
When respondents were shown a list of senatorial candidates who have filed their COCs, newcomers Doc Willie Ong (41%) and Erwin Tulfo (40%) topped the survey, alongside Ben ‘Bitag’ Tulfo (33%).
Returning senatoriables and re-electionists in the Top 12 include Vicente “Tito” Sotto (38%), Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (38%), Bong Go (35%), Pia Cayetano (33%), Manny Pacquiao (32%), Kiko Pangilinan (30%), Imee Marcos (30%), and Bam Aquino (27%) Bato Dela Rosa (26%).
Voter preferences in flux
Despite the strong early showings for several candidates, the survey reveals that 45% of voters remain undecided and are likely to change their preferences in the lead-up to the May 2025 elections. This fluidity is particularly pronounced among younger voters aged 18-24, where 52% expressed openness to changing their votes. Voters from low-income households, private and government employees, OFW families, and those with less formal education are also more inclined to reconsider their choices.
PAHAYAG Senate Preference Baseline Survey, conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc., is an independent and non-commissioned survey. The survey period was from 16 to 17 October 2024 using purposive sampling composed of 1,500 respondents randomly drawn from the market research panel of over 200,000 registered Filipino voters maintained by the Singapore office of PureSpectrum, a US-based panel marketplace with multinational presence. For more information on the survey methodology and detailed results, please visit www.publicusasia.com/pahayag.
