ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo and re-electionist Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go top the list of Senate bets likely to win in the 2025 midterm elections, according to the Halalan 2025 national survey by non-partisan public opinion research firm WR Numero.
The latest Philippine Public Opinion Monitor, conducted from April 23 to 30, 2025, asked respondents to select 12 Senate candidates if the elections were held during the field dates, from a sample ballot featuring the official list from the Commission on Elections. This is the last WR Numero election survey before the May 12 polls.
Rep. Erwin Tulfo and Sen. Bong Go led the preference list with 49% and 45% of voter preferences, respectively. The two retain the top spots from the April 2025 Week 1 survey of the Opinion Monitor.
They are followed by former Senate President Vicente Sotto III and incumbent Senators Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Pia Cayetano, all at 37%. For this survey, Sotto is the biggest gainer, jumping six spots from his placement in the previous survey. Dela Rosa retained his ranking, while Cayetano placed one spot higher.
Radio personality Ben Tulfo and incumbent Sen. Lito Lapid both ranked in 6th to 7th place, with 35% each, followed by former Sen. Ping Lacson (34%) in 8th place. Tulfo retained his ranking, while Lapid and Lacson slipped two spots. Makati City Mayor Abby Binay is at 9th place with 32% of voter preference, dropping three spots from the April 2025 Week 1 survey.
Tied in the 10th to 11th place are Las Piñas Lone District Rep. Camille Villar and re-electionist Sen. Bong Revilla, with 30% of voter preference. Completing the potential ‘Magic 12’ is former Sen. Bam Aquino (29%) in 12th place. Villar, Revilla, and Aquino retained their rankings from the prior survey.
Other names that could potentially land in the winning circle include incumbent Sen. Imee Marcos (26%), and former Senators Manny Pacquiao (26%) and Kiko Pangilinan (25%). Marcos and Pacquiao increased by two and one ranks, respectively, while Pangilinan dipped three ranks.
Senate preferences by area
Erwin Tulfo is the top bet in Metro Manila, with 49% of residents saying they will vote for him if the election were held on the field date. Filipinos in the capital region will also be voting for Sotto (47%), Ben Tulfo (41%), Go (39%), Aquino (33%), and Cayetano (33%). (See Table 2)
Erwin Tulfo is also the most preferred Senate candidate in the rest of Luzon at 59%. Trailing behind him are Cayetano and Ben Tulfo (43% each), Sotto (42%), and Lacson (41%).
Meanwhile, Filipino voters in Visayas showed preference for Go and Erwin Tulfo (51% each). Visayans will also likely vote for Lapid (42%), Sotto (41%), and Cayetano (39%).
In Mindanao, Filipino voters expressed overwhelming preference for Dela Rosa (70%) and Go (63%). The two are followed by SAGIP Partylist Rep. Rodante Marcoleta (38%), and celebrities Phillip Salvador (35%) and Jimmy Bondoc (34%).
Senate preferences by partisanship
Filipino voters who identify as supporters of the Duterte family and their allies expressed preference for Dela Rosa and Go, with 60% and 58%, respectively. Pro-Duterte voters will also likely vote for brothers Erwin (40%) and Ben Tulfo (33%), and Marcoleta and Lapid (32% each).
Those who support the Marcos family and their allies will likely vote for Erwin Tulfo (65%), followed by Sotto (55%) and Imee Marcos (48%). Others in their list are Lapid (46%) and Revilla (45%).
Supporters of the opposition, including former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, and other allied personalities, shared that they will vote for Aquino (56%), Erwin Tulfo (50%), and Pangilinan (48%). Pro-opposition voters also expressed support for Binay, Cayetano, and Sotto, all at 40%.
Finally, those who identified as independent shared that they will vote for Erwin Tulfo (52%), Sotto (42%), Cayetano (42%), Lacson (41%), and Go (39%).
The nationwide survey, conducted from April 23 to 30, 2025, was done through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,413 likely voters residing in the Philippines. The nationwide survey has a margin of error of ±2% at a 95% confidence level. At the subnational level, the margin of error is ±6% for the National Capital Region, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, ±5% for the Visayas, and ±4% for Mindanao, all at the same 95% confidence level.
