Former President Rodrigo Duterte filed his certificate of candidacy (COC) for Mayor of Davao City yesterday. His running mate is incumbent mayor and son Baste Z. Duterte. His other son Paolo submitted his COC for reelection. He will be on his third 3-year term as congressman of the city’s first district.
Early last night we heard from one vlogger that Civil Service Commission (CSC) Chairman Karlo Nograles has reportedly resigned. The immediate assumption of most political observers in the city is that he might be running for City Mayor against the Duterte patriarch. Earlier, one Bishop Rodolfo Cubos of the Christ the Healer Mission International filed his COC for Mayor. So, if no other person files his/her COC today, then it will be a 3-cornered tussle for the position of mayor in Davao City.
And should Karlo really fight the former President in the 2025 elections for mayor in the city will he ever had a Chinaman’s chance of beating the still largely popular former chief executive? Or will he suffer the same feat that his late father had when he ran for mayor against Duterte some years back?
There is no doubt that the former first district congressman is a very capable person. He is a lawyer, a well-known administrator of the agency of government that ensures the qualifications of those who would want to work with public institutions or offices. And if he will be under the umbrella of President Marcos, Jr.’s political party he could likely be supported with the much needed material and financial resources to run his campaign.
Of course Karlo knows that his rival former President and his family are already deeply rooted in Davao City. His consolation perhaps is, unlike before he became President FPRRD was virtually “Lord” among those using the mountains and forest as their haven – the New People’s Army (NPA) rebels. The former President seems to have estranged himself from his “friends” in the mountain fastness when his peace talk with the rebels stalled and ended in a not-so-happy note. Besides, the military somehow made some gains in its efforts to rid the countryside from the clutches of the Communist ideology-inspired anti-government movement.
In other words, unlike during the time of his father’s candidacy as Mayor, Karlo could possibly have better opportunity to personally campaign in areas far inland without fear of getting ambushed or intimidated.
Possibly too, Karlo may have allies in the Garcia political family that have shown indications of shifting support to the Marcos Jr.’s administration. He may also have another allies in the family of the late Davao City Mayor and third district Congressman Elias B. Lopez.
Karlo’s biggest challenge should he pursue his mayoral run is FPRRD’s identity with the masses. Wherever he goes in the city the former President is able to blend himself with the common man. And despite Karlo’s approachability, his name is wrongly associated with Davao City’s elite – the ruling class. So do are those families who are likely to align themselves with him.
If Karlo will be able to jump over those hurdles, then he could possibly put up a semblance of an electoral fight. Honestly however, Duterte’s ability to perpetuate his pro-people tag in the hearts and minds of the Davaoeno voters is so well etched in stone that cannot be erased in a short time. And Karlo sure knows this. Therefore, chances are, even this early Karlo knows he could be fighting an already lost battle.
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What about the chances of Bishop Rodolfo Cubos in his quest for the top elective post in the city? Well, he knows his aspiration is quixotic. It is like that legendary Sancho dela Mancha fighting the windmill.
No, we are not underestimating the religious Bishop. He could be as qualified to run for mayor as the former President and of Karlo Nograles. But Bishop Cubos is as aware as many of us that politics in the country including Davao City is not practiced the way the religious sector selects its leaders; that even the loyalty of his 15 thousand followers can change overnight when full-bloodied politicians do their thing with their money and other means.
And if the good Bishop’s resources cannot approximate what his political nemesis have, then all the more that his running for mayor of the city in next year’s local election would be one “exercise in futility.”
Even if he enters into alliances with other religious groups, still it could not be an assurance for him to even loosen a little the Duterte stranglehold of power in the city.
But of course, the chances of either Karlo or Bishop Cubos could end up brighter if majority of the Davaoenos would opt for a change in leadership after more than three decades of the Dutertes at the helm of power.
But from where we are perched we can see vividly that such desire for change is one remote possibility.
