LA NIÑA’S likelihood of developing in August-October increased to 70%, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Friday, July 12.
This is a development from the previous advisory issued on June 20, that a 50% likelihood of La Niña will develop between Sept-Nov this year.
In the advisory issued on July 12, the weather bureau’s climate monitoring and analyses show further cooling of the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System was raised to La Niña Alert.
La Niña forming in the Aug-Oct 2024 season will likely persist until the first quarter of 2025 (January- March).
Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific and are anticipated to persist until the July-Sept 2024 season.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern that involves changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of ENSO, respectively.
Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction section chief said during the 173rd Climate Forum on June 26, that rain-bearing weather systems may affect the country from July to December.
This includes easterlies, localized thunderstorms, shear lines, frontal systems, southwest monsoons (Oct-Dec), intertropical convergence zones, tropical cyclones, northeast monsoons, and ridges of high-pressure areas.
