THE PHILIPPINE Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that the El Niño phenomenon has already weakened in the March-May season, according to Advisory No. 9 issued by the office.
Lolita Vinalay, PAGASA-Davao Complex Station meteorological officer chief, said the National Climate Forum conducted last March 20 reported that though El Niño weakens, it’s transitioning to a neutral condition between April and June 2024.
“The Pacific Ocean temperature is slowly decreasing,” Vinalay said.
Vinalay stressed now that although El Niño slowly fading, there is a 62% chance of La Niña developing within the next six months.
“La Niña is also known as the anomalous pulling of the Pacific Ocean in which most parts of South America won’t experience enough rain. However, the countries located in the western part of the Pacific Ocean including the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia will experience more rainy seasons and storms,” she said.
La Niña is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and triggers above-normal rainfall in the Philippines.
Vinalay said La Niña will probably impose more risk of tropical storms and rainfall in Mindanao and Visayas, particularly in Davao and Caraga region, as the areas are affected by the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan.
She added that PAGASA continually observes the northeast monsoon season occurring up to the third quarter of next year.
